Why
Do India and Pakistan Fight
Mazher Hussain
2013 is a unique year in the history of Indo–Pak relations. The
first seven months of this year witnessed eight substantive peace initiatives with
announcement of visa on arrival for senior citizens, announcement of release of
all Indian fishermen from Pakistan jails, Chief Minister of Gujarat , Nardendra Modi, invites a
delegation from the Karachi Chamber of Commerce and Industry to attend the
sixth Vibrant Gujarat Investor Summit, expression
of desire to work for peace with India by Nawaz Sharif even before formally
taking over charge as the Prime Minister of Pakistan; meeting of Satinder
Lambah Special Indian Envoy to Pakistan and Afghanistan with Nawaz Sharif with
a message from the Prime Minister of India on 27th May and return
visit by PakistanIndeed, whenever peace processes appear to be getting
grounded and showing positive results, some stray incidents always seem to
arise out of nowhere to derail the on-going dialogue, disrupt attempts at
increased cooperation and the status of relations degenerates back to square
one. envoy Shariyar M. Khan on 6th July with a message
from Prime Minister Nawaz to Dr. Manmohan Singh of “ Pakistan’s sincere desire
to move forward on improving relations with India”; Agreement between India and
Pakistan to hold Secretary level talks on the issues of Sir Creek, Tulbul
Project and Wullar Barrage in August, and an agreement for the Prime Ministers of
both countries to meet on the side lines of UN General Assembly in September. Enough
and more for India- Pakistan peace process to appear to be on track at last-
firmly and conclusively.
But this is not to be. This same period also witnesses unprecedented
escalation in cross border conflicts between the two countries with a record 57
incidences of attacks and counter attacks taking place between January and
August this year that is an 80% increase over such incidences during the same
period last year. This started with the killing of 2 Pakistani soldiers on 5th
January, killing and beheading of Indian Solders on 8th January, and
continued till the recent killing of five Indian soldiers in an ambush on 5th
August. All these incidences together seem to be succeeding in stalling the
peace process with the demand to stop all dialogue. Advocates of aggression once
again seem to be gaining a point that peace initiatives should not be attempted
as they cannot last.
Indeed, whenever peace processes appear to be getting
grounded and showing positive results, some stray incidents always seem to
arise out of nowhere to derail the on-going dialogue, disrupt attempts at
increased cooperation and the status of relations degenerates back to square
one.But why should peace initiatives between India and
Pakistan always stall? What makes India and Pakistan continue their
fight?
Budgets and Conflicts
There appear to be some interesting correlation between conflicts
and CBMs (Confidence Building Measures) between India and Pakistan during the
past 25 years from 1988 to 2013. During this period, 18 conflicts have taken
place including Kargil, attack on Indian Parliament, Mumbai terror strike along
with ceasefire violations. Of these, as many as 13 (72%) have taken place
between the last week of September and first week of January - mostly winter
time and a period of only three and a half months while just 5 or 27% conflicts occurred in the remaining
spans of eight and a half months. The only explanation for the concentration of
so many conflicts in such a short span and that too in the difficult winter
months is the annual budget of India announced in March and of Pakistan in June
every year. Deterioration in relations with neighbours and escalation in
conflicts during this third quarter of the financial year could produce desired
levels of insecurity among the people and create appropriate conditions for
escalation of defence budgets.
Further substantiation for this thesis can be obtained by the
events between 2011 and 2013 when a phenomenal 31 agreements and peace measures
were adopted by India and Pakistan leading to enormous confidence building and the
possibility of permanent peace appearing realisable. The situation had become
conducive enough for Mr. P. Chidambaram to make an announcement of reduction in
the defence budget when he took over as the Finance Minister of India in
November 2012. But in just over a month, with the killing of Pakistani and
Indian soldiers in January 2013, followed by other conflicts along the border
and in Kashmir valley after a lull of over 2 years, Chidambaram had to announce
an increase of 5% in the defence budget for India in March 2013.
The five remaining conflicts that occurred between May and
July in different years also appear to have been instigated with a direct
objective of disrupting some specific peace initiatives. The Kargil conflict of 1999 was in response
to Bus diplomacy initiated by Vajpayee in February of that year that seemed to
put the peace process on track at last. But within three months, the Kargil
attack destroyed the whole momentum and the peace process could not be resumed
for the next 5 years. May and June of 2002 also saw heavy shelling on the India
–Pakistan border to coincide with the visit of David Rumsfield of USA who had
come with the objective of restoring peace between India and Pakistan. Needless
to say, his mission became a nonstarter. The fourth conflict in the form of
another ceasefire violation was instigated on 30th July 2008 immediately
after India and Pakistan has signed on 24th June a Joint Anti-terror
Mechanism to prevent terror attacks and to frustrate talks on Multi trade
agreement between India and Pakistan scheduled within 25 days on 25th
September. The final conflict outside the months of budgetary considerations
was in May2011 to impact the talks on resolution of the Siachen issue that were
scheduled in the same month. Of course the talks failed and Siachen continues
to remain an issue taxing and draining both countries.
Hence, all the conflicts that have taken place between India
and Pakistan in the last 25 years seemed to have disrupted some specific peace
initiative or pushed up the annual defence budgets. Indeed there are many
players who have high and profitable stakes in instigating conflicts and keeping them alive starting
with the arms manufacturers, dealers, business groups, politicians, bureaucrats
and some senior armed forces personal, intelligence agencies, militant and
terrorist groups and even the media that may be advertently or inadvertently
whipping up war hysteria either for TRPs and increased circulation or to serve
the business interests of their corporate bosses. The losers in this game are
the soldiers and officers stationed on the border who pay with their lives and
common people who are brainwashed into surrendering the very basic amenities
due to them from the government and the system all in the name of providing
more budgets for national security.
Moral:
If we still do not understand and continue to fight, then we are fools- dumb
fools.
(Mazher Hussain is Executive Director of COVA, a national
network working on issues of communal harmony in India and peace in South
Asia.)
